磁卡原理The new ECMWF Seasonal Forecast System (System-4)
Franco Molteni, Tim Stockdale, Magdalena Balmaseda, Roberto Buizza, Laura Ferranti, Linus Magnusson,
Kristian Mogensen, Frederic Vitart
ECMWF, Reading, U.K.
The new ECMWF Seasonal fc. system (Sys-4)llvm
OASIS-3 NEMO
1/1-0.3 d. lon/lat 42 levels
H-TESSEL
IFS 36R4 0.7 deg (T255) 91 levels 4-D variational d.a.
3-D v.d.a. (NEMOVAR) Gen. of Perturb. System-4 CGCM
Initial Con.
Ens. Forecasts
电视剧海之门• New ocean model : NEMO v. 3.0 + 3.1 coupling interface
Ø ORCA-1 configuration (~1-deg. resol., ~0.3 lat. near the equator) Ø 42 vertical levels, 20 levels with z < 300 m
• Variational ocean data assimilation (NEMOVAR)
Ø 3-D var with inner and outer loop
Ø Collaboration with CERFACS, UK Met Office, INRIA
Ø First re-analysis (1957-2009), no assim. of sea-level anomalies Ø Final re-analysis (ORA-S4) and real-time system including SLA
• IFS model cycle: 36r4 (op. Nov. 2010-May 2011), T255-L91 Ø New physics package, including H-T
ESSEL land-surface scheme,
new snow model, new land surface initialization
• Prescribed sea-ice conc. with sampling from recent years
• Operational forecasts
Ø 51-member ensemble from 1st day of the month
Ø released on the 8th
Ø 7-month integration
• Experimental ENSO outlook护理安全
Ø 13-month extension from 1st Feb/May/Aug/Nov
Ø 15-member ensemble
• Re-forecast set
Ø 30 years, start dates from 1 Jan 1981 to 1 Dec 2010 Ø 15-member ensembles, 7-month integrations
Ø 13-month extension from 1st Feb/May/Aug/Nov
Bias in S4 re-forecasts: SST (DJF)
包场中学Start: 1 Nov.
性之初1981/2010
Verify: Dec-Feb
System 4
System 3
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