摩天大楼指数——如影随形的经济危机作为一种以巨大的经济力量为支撑的建筑物，摩天大楼常被民众和政客视为展示经济繁荣、社会进步的标志。有些经济学家则持完全相反的看法，认为摩天大楼的出现，特别是摩天大楼的纪录被刷新，往往预示着经济即将衰退。“高楼建成之日，即是市场衰退之时”，这是德意志银行的证券分析师安德鲁•劳伦斯于1999年发表的判言。2006年2月15日，雷曼兄弟公司在北京召开全球经济会议，其全球首席经济学家卢埃林向我国客户提及“摩天大楼指数”的预言：“如果全球有发生经济危机的可能性，那很可能会在2007年或2008年。”雷曼的首席经济学家预见了2007年到2008年的经济危机，但却不曾想到，雷曼的百年基业正是在这场危机中化为泡影。对于经济而言，摩天大楼是荣耀还是诅咒？其与经济危机之间是否真的存在这样密切的联系呢？1999年，安德鲁•劳伦斯经过研究验证了摩天大楼与经济危机的关联，并将这种关联称为“摩天大楼指数”。每一幢刷新世界纪录的摩天大楼的崛起，往往都伴随着经济的衰退。自20世纪初以来，全球共出现了四轮摩天大楼热，而每一次，都伴随着经济危机或金融动荡。俞秀松
仓库防火安全管理规则20世纪20年代，美国经济转好，证券市场再度空前繁荣，民用、商用房产建设高歌猛进。这期间，三座刷新纪录的摩天大楼先后兴建。纽约的华尔街40号、克莱斯勒大厦和帝国大厦相继于1929年至1931年的三年中落成，但随之而来的不是新的繁荣，而是空前的大萧条。在经历了被美国人称之为“黄金时代”的20世纪60年代强劲、持续的经济繁荣后，纽约的世贸中心和芝加哥的西尔斯大厦开始兴建。1972年和1974年，两座再次刷新世界纪录的摩天大楼相继落成，随后，全球经济发生了严重滞胀。摩天大楼与经济危机的关联如此密切，很难用巧合来理解，那么究竟是什么原因让经济危机总是与摩天大楼如影随形呢？首先，人性使然。人性当中有盲目自信的一面。具体体现在对客观事物认识不足，偏执于对事物的主观看法上。劳伦斯把他发现的经济危机与摩天大楼的联系称为“百年病态关联”，但此类现象，在人类社会中又何止只存在了百年。以史为鉴，我们不难发现，在我国历史的长河中，此类现象早有体现。商朝兴盛时，纣王兴建造鹿台，引得民怨四起最终于鹿台自焚；清代鼎盛时，乾隆帝大举修建园林，导致国力衰落最终丧权辱国。外围电路
其次，利益推动。在商业行为中，逐利是前提条件。在经济繁荣之前，通常有一个低利率的过程，这也是经济向繁荣周期转化的一个先决条件。而在经济繁荣的过程中，利率相对 于人们对于未来收益的预期来说，一直都是低的。所以，就会产生一系列的利益传导途径，也就是前面所提到的利益链条。经济的繁荣和相对较低的利率，对土地价值和资本成本有着直接的影响。在土地价格、企业需求和资金支撑三个因素所构成的利益链的作用下，可以刷新世界纪录的摩天大楼计划，就应运而生了。就像日有昼夜、季有冬夏一样，经济也是存在景气周期的。任何商品的价格，都会受到供需关系的影响。否极泰来，盛极而衰，低廉的利率、膨胀的需求、上涨的资本价格，以及大多数人盲目乐观的心态，所集合产生的“黄金状态”构成了摩天大楼的需求，但这种状态是不可持续的。贫富差距
所以，通常是在经济已经步入衰退的时候，摩天大楼才刚刚竣工；在它真正投入使用的时候，经济很可能已经深陷困境。这就导致了经济危机总是与摩天大楼的兴建如影随形，也常使全球第一建筑成为逝去繁荣的纪念碑。参考译文：Skyscraper Index ― Ghost of Economic Crisis bootvis
A kind of architecture supported by tremendous economic power, skyscrapers are often looked on as a sign of economic prosperity and social progress by the public and politicians. Some economists, however, hold the opposite view that the emergence of skyscrapers, especially record-breaking skyscrapers, often indicates the decline of the economy.
“The world’s tallest buildings have risen on the eve of economic downturns,” claimed Andrew Lawrence, research director at Dresdner Kleinwort Wasserstein, in 1999. At Lehman Brothers’ Global Economic Conference held on February 15, 2006 in Beijing, John Llewellyn, global chief economist at Lehman Brothers, mentioned the prophecy of the “Skyscraper Index” to its Chinese clients: “If there is the possibility of a global economic crisis, it is likely to happen in 2007 or 2008.”
Lehman’s chief economist successfully predicted the 2007-2008 economic crisis, but did not expect that it was in this crisis that Lehman’s century-old business collapsed. Are skyscrapers the glory or the curse to economy? Is it true that skyscrapers and economic crises are so closely related to each other?
In 1999, Andrew Lawrence proved the relevance between skyscrapers and economic crises through studies, and he called this relevance the “Skyscraper Index” ― the completion of every record-breaking skyscraper is often accompanied by economic recession. Since the beginning of the 20th century, there have been four rounds of skyscraper boom globally, and each time, the boom was accompanied by an economic crisis or financial turmoil.
齿槽转矩In the 1920s, with the economy of the U.S.A. turning for the better, the stock market again prospered with no precedent in history and the construction of civil and commercial buildings went on triumphantly. During this period, three record-breaking skyscrapers were built successively. Within three years, 40 Wall Street, Chrysler Building and the Empire State Building were completed in succession from 1929 to 1931 in New York. However, what came along was not the new prosperity, but the unprecedented Great Depression. After the so-called “Golden Age” of the strong and durable economic prosperity in the 1960s, the New York World Trade Center and the Sears Tower in Chicago began to be constructed. 1972 and 1974 saw the completion of two more record-
breaking skyscrapers. Following that was a serious global economic stagflation.
Skyscrapers are so closely associated with economic crises that it is improper to simply interpret the phenomenon as coincidence. Then what is it that makes economic crises always go hand in hand with skyscrapers?
First, human nature. There exists blind self-confidence in human nature. This is embodied in the lack of knowledge of objective things and the paranoia in subjective perception of things. Andrew Lawrence describes the relevance which he found between economic crises and skyscrapers as the “Unhealthy 100-Year Correlation.” But such phenomena have existed for far more than a hundred years in human society. Learning from history, we can easily find that this kind of phenomenon has long been reflected in the course of the history of our country. When the Shang Dynasty was at its prosperous time, King Zhou had Palace Lutai built, causing popular resentment and ultimately his self-immolation in the palace. At the height of the Qing Dynasty, Emperor Qianlong built landscape gardens in large scale, leading to the empire’s decline and eventually the forfeit of its sovereignty.
Second, profit. The pursuit of profit is a prerequisite in business practices. Before the economic boom, there is usually a low-interest-rate period, which is also a prerequisite for the economy to boom periodically. Yet, during the economic boom, interest rates are always low with respect to people’s earnings expectations for the future. Therefore, a series of pathways for conducting profits will be created, that is, the profit chains mentioned above. Economic prosperity and relatively low interest rates have a direct impact on the value of land and capital costs. Under the influence of the profit chains composed of land prices, business needs and financial support, plans for record-breaking skyscrapers come into being.
As the day is divided into daytime and night and the year into seasons, economy has it own business cycle. The price of any commodity is determined by supply and demand. Things at the worst will mend and decline at the height. The “golden state” generated by low interest rates, expansion in demand, rising capital costs and most people’s blindly optimistic attitude constitutes a need for skyscrapers, but this state will not last long.
Therefore, a skyscraper is usually completed at the time when the economy has already
entered recession. When the skyscraper is actually put into use, the economy is likely to be in deep trouble. This is the reason why economic crises always go hand in hand with the construction of skyscrapers, thus often making the world’s tallest building a monument to past prosperity.
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