论文摘要英国的资产阶级革命
证券行业是高风险行业。2001年-2005年期间，我国证券行业经历了风险逐渐聚集和集中爆发的过程，2008年的金融危机更是使得国际投资银行遭受了摧毁性的打击。研究与建立一套证券公司风险早期预警机制的重要性不言而喻。2005年-2007年历时三年的证券业风险综合治理极大推进了我国证券行业的风险管理进程，但证券公司风险管理的意识尚有待提高，风险评估与预警机制也有待完善。随着证券市场的发展及行业竞争的加剧，在愈来愈复杂和危险的风险面前，我国证券公司建立适合自身需求的风险评估与预警体系具有一定的紧迫性。广州天河部落
目前国内外对预警机制的研究主要集中在金融风险方面，部分国内学者运用金融风险预警机制框架对金融中介机构风险的研究也主要是对商业银行的监控上，对于同处于中枢地位的证券公司研究却极少。本文在现有国内外研究成果基础上，借鉴金融风险以及银行业风险评估与预警方法，结合证监会等我国监管部门的相关指导性文件思想，采用信号提取法建立了我国证券公司风险评估与预警体系。在体系的构建中，本文全面深入论述了我国证券公司风险的分类与特征，设计出了一套涵盖各类风险因素、财务指标与非财务指标相结合且操作性较强的风险评估指标体系，并综合利用统计“3σ”法则、熵值赋权法等国内外相对成熟和主流的理论确定出了各风险评估指标警戒值及权重。本文还利用已建立的我国证券公司风险预警体系从静态与动态两个层面对我国证券业的风险状况进行了模拟运用。结果显示，2009年我国证券业基本安全，市场风险、流动性风险仍是主要风险因素，法律风险近年来有增长趋势。建立的预警
体系效果良好，能够满足我国证券公司及监管部门的实际需要。最后，本文对完善我国证券公司风险评估与预警体系提出了建立监测数据库、完善监管体系以及构建证券市场对冲机制等三方面建议。
本文创新之处主要在于对风险评估指标体系的改进以及样本选择的科学性上。在指标体系中，本文设计了员工诚信水平、重大违规次数、法律诉讼次数
等非财务指标量化操作风险、法律风险等，并引用市场情绪指标交易量偏差率以及净资本相关指标改进体系整体评估效果；在样本选择上，区别于以往研究，本文采用我国2009年全部106家证券公司作为样本，既涵盖了上市公司和非上市公司，也有助于反映我国新时期风险特征，更具有说服性及时代意义。
关键词：风险预警体系；风险评估指标；证券公司刘柏权
Abstract山东省社会主义学院>td-scdma gsm
The securities industry is a high risk sector. From 2001 to 2005, the Chinese securities industry experienced the process of the risk’s gradual accumulation and concentrative outbreak, and the financial crisis in 2008 has brought devastating blow to international investment banks. In this situation, it is very important for the securities company to establish the early warning system of risk.
The comprehensive management of risk in the securities industry from 2005 to 2007 has greatly promoted the process of risk management in the securities industry in China. However, the securities company’s consciousness of risk management still needs enhancing, and the risk assessment and early warning system need to be improved. With the development of the securities market and the aggravation of industry competition, the risks become more complex and dangerous, so it is urgent for China's securities companies to establish the system of risk assessment and early warning meeting their own needs.
At present, researches of warning system done at home and abroad are mainly focused on the financial risk. Some domestic scholars utilized the frame of early warning system of financial risk to do research on the risk of financial intermediaries, however, these researches were almost on the monitor of commercial bank, and extremely few were done on securities company which also play the role of intermediaries. Based on the existing research results and combined with the guidance documents advanced by regulatory authorities like China Securities Regulatory Commission, we draw on the methods of assessing and early warning of the financial risk as well as the banking industry risk and use the signal
extraction method to establish the system of risk assessment and early warning in our country. In the
process of system’s construction, this article elaborated the risk classification and risk characteristics of securities firms in our country, designed a risk assessment indicator system which is operable and includes many kinds of risk factors and financial and non-financial indicators, and determined the guard value and weight of each risk assessment indicator, using relatively mature and mainstream theories at home and abroad, such as ‘3σ’ rule in statistics, the entropy empowerment method and so on.
We also used the established early warning system of risk to do simulation of the risk condition of our countries’ securities industry from both the static state and the dynamic state. The results show that the Chinese securities industry was basically safe in 2009, market risk and liquidity risk were still the main risk factors and legal risk took on an increasing trend in recent years. Establishment of early warning system is effective and can meet Chinese securities companies’ and regulatory authorities’ need. Finally, we proposed establishment of monitoring database, improvement of regulatory system and the construction of hedging mechanism for improving the risk assessment and early warning system of China's securities companies.
The innovation of this article lies mainly in the improvement of risk assessment indicator system as well as the scientific nature of sample selection. When designing the indicator system, we have used
some non-financial indicators such as the honesty level of staff, the number of staff’s significant rule violation and legal proceeding and so forth to measure the operation risk, the legal risk and so on, and we also cite the market mood indicator, the deviation of trading volume, as well as some net-capital related indicators to improve the system’s whole appraisal effect. As to the sample selection, different from previous studies, this article used all the 106 securities firms in our country
in 2009 as the sample, including both listed companies and non-listed companies, and this helps to reflect the risk characteristics in the new period and have practical significance.
Key words: Early Warning System of Risk, Risk Assessment Indicator, Securities Company
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