短平快学逻辑（三）起源谬误赌徒谬误From: 心理探寻 Psychology心理探寻 1 week ago Genetic Fallacy/起源谬误
Explanation/解说
The genetic fallacy is committed when an idea is either accepted or rejected because of its source, rather than its merit.
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起源谬误是指，因论点来源而接受或反对该论点，而非因论点本身。 Even from bad things, good may come; we therefore ought not to reject an idea just because of where it comes from, as ad hominem arguments do.
Equally, even good sources may sometimes produce bad results; accepting an idea because of the goodness of its source, as in appeals to authority, is therefore no better than rejecting an idea because of the badness of its source. Both types of argument are fallacious.
太平洋岛国即使不好的东西，也可能会带来好的结果。因此我们不能因为一个观点的来源就拒绝接受该观点。 同样，即使观点来源很好，有时也可能会带来不好的结果。
因此，仅因为观点来源好，就接受某观点，例如诉诸权威谬误，和因为观点来源不好就反对该观点如出一辙。两种类型的论证都是错误的。
Examples/示例：
门槛效应
(1) My mommy told me that the tooth fairy is real.
Therefore:
(2) The tooth fairy is real.
家有学子(1) Eugenics was pioneered in Germany during the war.
Therefore:
(2) Eugenics is a bad thing.
（1）我妈妈曾告诉我牙仙子真的存在。
因此
（2）牙仙子真的存在。
（1）德国在战争期间率先提出了优生学
evi因此
（2）优生学不是什么好东西。
Each of these arguments commits the genetic fallacy, because each judges an idea by the goodness or badness of its source, rather than on its own merits.
上述论证都犯有来源谬误，因为每个都在根据观点来源的好坏去判断论点，而不是根据论点本身。
Gambler’s Fallacy/赌徒谬误
Explanation/解说
The gambler’s fallacy is the fallacy of assuming that short-term deviations from probability will be corrected in the short-term.
赌徒谬误是指认为对概率的短期偏离会在短期内得到修正。
Faced with a series of events that are statistically unlikely, say, a serious of 9 coin tosses that have l
anded heads-up, it is very tempting to expect the next coin toss to land tails-up. The past series of results, though, has no effect on the probability of the various possible outcomes of the next coin toss.
面对一系列从统计学上来看不可能的事件，比如说，连续抛硬币9次都是正面，那么就极容易认为接下来一次就会是反面。 但过去的一系列结果，对接下来抛硬币的种种可能结果并没有任何影响。
Example/示例
(1) This coin has landed heads-up nine times in a row.
Therefore:
tak(2) It will probably land tails-up next time it is tossed.
（1）这枚硬币已经连续抛了9次都是正面了。
所以：
（2）下一次再抛时极有可能会是反面。
This inference is an example of the gambler’s fallacy. When a fair coin is tossed, the probability of it landing heads-up is 50%, and the probability of it landing tails-up is 50%. These probabilities are unaffected by the results of previous tosses.
这一推断过程就是一种赌徒谬误。抛硬币时，正反面概率都是50%。这些概率并不受到之前结果的影响。
The gambler’s fallacy appears to be a reasonable way of thinking because we know that a coin tossed ten times is very unlikely to land heads-up every time. If we observe a tossed coin landing heads-up nine times in a row we therefore infer that the unlikely sequence will not be continued, that next time the coin will land tails-up.
赌徒谬误看起来似乎是很合理的一种想法，因为我们知道硬币连续十次都是正面的概率微乎其微。当我们观察到硬币已连续9次都是正面时，我们因此就会推断这种不大可能的序列不会继续保持，下次硬币就会是反面。
In fact, though, the probability of the coin landing heads-up on the tenth toss is exactly the same as it was on the first toss. Past results don’t bear on what will happen next.
但实际上，第10次硬币是正还是反，其概率与第一次被抛时毫无不同。
过去的结果，并不会影响接下来要发生的事情。
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