摘 要
微观交通仿真系统越来越广泛地被用于交通工程、交通规划领域，其前提是使用的各种交通模型得到充分的标定与验证。本文对微观交通仿真系统中的核心模型——车辆跟驰模型的参数标定与验证作了研究，主要包括如下研究内容：
1）首先研究了微观交通仿真国内外现状，各种车辆跟驰模型的原理，选取GM类车辆跟驰模型作为待标定与验证的车辆跟驰模型，进一步研究了此类模型中最重要的参数之一——驾驶员反应时间的标定方法；
2）选取大部分车辆处于跟驰状态的微观交通流数据，分析其各种交通流特性：交通流量、平均车速、车流密度、车头时距等，为车辆跟驰模型参数标定与仿真验证工作做好数据准备；
3）使用互相关分析法，最小二乘法，相对速度与加速度对比图法标定GM类车辆跟驰模型最重要的参数之一反应时间，对反应时间做出统计描述，并从反应时间这个角度分析驾驶员特性；比较这三种标定方法的不同；
4）从驾驶员认知角度分析车辆跟驰过程中跟驰行为的影响因素，进一步利用定量分析法——因子分析法
分析车辆跟驰过程中跟驰行为
的主要影响因素，基于主要影响因素，选取合适的GM类车辆跟驰模型，标定除反应时间之外的其它参数；IFANY
5）以分布式并行仿真系统TPSS为平台，集成标定好的车辆跟驰模型，运用仿真验证方法，验证参数标定结果的有效性。
本文利用互相关分析法，最小二乘法，相对速度与加速度对比图法标定了驾驶员反应时间，得到此参数的均值，标准差等统计描述，发现互相关分析法的计算结果与以往的研究具有较大的差异，最小二乘法，相对速度与加速度对比图法的计算结果与以往的研究一致。对车辆跟驰模型中反应时间之外的参数的标定，得到了两组分别适合于车辆加速时与车辆减速时的参数值。将标定好的车辆跟驰模型集成到分布式并行仿真系统TPSS中仿真验证表明，仿真结果达到了预先设定的仿真模型验证标准。
关键词：微观交通仿真，GM类车辆跟驰模型，分布式并行仿真系统，标定，验证，反应时间
Research on Parameters Calibration and Verification of
Car-following Models
针织圆机ABSTRACT
Traffic micro-simulation systems have been widely used in the fields of transportation engineering and planning, and its premise is that all kinds of models in those traffic micro-simulation systems have been adequately calibrated and verified. In this thesis, some research is done on parameters calibration and verification of core models: car-following models of traffic micro-simulation systems, and the major contributes are as follows:
1)Recent traffic micro-simulation research all over the world is
discussed, and laws of many kinds of car-following models are introduced. Then GM-type car-following models are chosen as models which will be calibrated and verified later. The calibration ways of driver reaction time: one of the most important parameters in GM-type models are summarized.
2)A set of Micro-traffic flow data in which most cars are in the car-
following state is chosen, and many kinds of traffic characteristics such as flow, mean speed, density and time headway are analyzed.
These characteristics are the base of the following calibration and
定价模型verification.
3)Driver reaction times are calibrated in the ways of cross-correlation
analysis, least squares method, and the relative speed and the acceleration spot, and statistic description of reaction times is obtained.
From the viewpoint of reaction times, driver behavior is researched.
Also, three calibration ways are compared.
4) Factors which effect car-following behavior are analyzed from the
point of drivers’ cognition, and factors analysis are done to these factors, then main factors influencing car-following behavior are grasped. Based on this, a kind of GM-type model is chosen, and other parameters except reaction time in this model are calibrated.
云南省长不识滇5)TPSS is used as a simulation platform, and the model of which
parameters have been calibrated is integrated in TPSS, the simulation results are compared to the reality to verify the reliability of the calibration work.
人体三维模型
The mean values and standard deviations of react times are obtained using three ways. The results of cross-correlation analysis are different from the past research, and the results of other two ways are similar to the past research. Two sets of parameters values are acquired corresponding to accelerating state and decelerating state. Verification results satisfy the standard of traffic micro-simulation.
八卦养生法Key Words: Traffic Micro-simulation, GM-type Car-following Models, Traffic Parallel Simulation System, Calibration, Verification, Reaction Time
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