称赞教学设计The Future of Intelligence Jeff Hawkins with Sandra Blackeslee
(Excerpt from chapter 8 of ‘ ON INTELLIGENCE’ )
It's hard to predict the ultimate uses of a new technology. As we've seen throughout this book, brains make predictions by analogy to the past. So our natural inclination is to imagine that a new technology will be used to do the same kinds of things as a previous technology. We imagine using a new tool to do something familiar, only faster, more efficiently, or more cheaply.
Examples are abundant. People called the railroad the "iron horse" and the automobile the "horseless carriage." For decades the telephone was viewed in the context of the telegraph, something that should be used only to communicate important news or emergencies; it wasn't until the 1920s that people started using it casually. Photography was at first used as a new form of portraiture. And motion pictures were conceptualized as a variation on stage
plays, which is why movie theaters had retracting curtains over the screens for much of the twentieth century.
Yet the ultimate uses of a new technology are often unexpected and more far-reaching than our imaginations can at first grasp. The telephone has evolved into a wireless voice and data communications network permitting any two people on the planet to communicate with each other, no matter where they are, via voice, text, and images. The transistor was invented by Bell Labs in 1947. It was instantly clear to people that the device was a breakthrough, but the initial applications were just improvements on old applications: transistors replaced vacuum tubes. This led to smaller and more reliable radios and computers, which was important and exciting in its day, but the main differences were the size and reliability of the machines. The transistor's most revolutionary applications weren't discovered until later. A period of gradual innovation was necessary before anyone could conceive of the integrated circuit, the microprocessor, the digital signal processor, or the memory chip. The microprocessor, likewise, was first developed, in 1970, with desktop calculators in mind. Again, the first ap
plications were just replacements of existing technologies. The electronic calculator was a replacement for the mechanical desktop calculator. Microprocessors were also clear candidates to replace the solenoids that were then used in certain kinds of industrial control, such as switching traffic lights. However, it was years before the true power of the microprocessor began to be manifest. No one at the time could foresee the modern personal computer, the cell phone, the Internet, the Global Positioning System, or any other piece of today's bread-and-butter information technology. 王学左派
长春李大夫
By the same token, we would be foolish to think we can predict the revolutionary applications of brainlike memory systems. I fully expect these intelligent machines to improve life in all sorts of ways. We can be sure of it. But predicting the future of technology more than a few years out is impossible. To appreciate this you need
only read some of the absurd prognostications futurists have confidently made over the years. In the 1950s, it was predicted that by the year 2000 we'd all have atomic reactors in our basements and take our vacations on the moon. But as long as we keep these cau
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中学tionary tales in mind, there's a lot to be gained by speculating about what intelligent machines will be like. At a minimum, there are certain broad and useful conclusions we can draw about the future. The questions are intriguing ones. Can we build intelligent machines, and, if so, what will they look like? Will they be closer to the humanlike robots seen in popular fiction, the black or beige box of a personal computer, or something else? How will they be used? Is this a dangerous technology that can harm us or threaten our personal liberties? What are the obvious applications for intelligent machines, and is there any way we can know what the fantastic applications will be? What will the ultimate impact of intelligent machines be on our lives?
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Can We Build Intelligent Machines?
Yes, we can build intelligent machines, but they may not be what you expect. Although it may seem like the obvious thing to do, I don't believe we will build intelligent machines that act like humans, or even interact with us in humanlike ways.
One popular notion of intelligent machines comes to us from movies and books— they are the lovable, evil, or occasionally bumbling humanoid robots that converse with us about feelings, ideas, and events, and play a role in endless science-fiction plots. A century of science fiction has trained people to view robots and androids as an inevitable and desirable part of our future. Generations have grown up with images of Robbie the Robot from Forbidden Planet, R2D2 and C3PO from Star Wars, and Lieutenant Commander Data from Star Trek. Even HAL in the movie 2001: A Space Odyssey, although not possessing a body, was very humanlike, designed to be as much a companion as a programmed copilot for the humans on their long space journey. Limited-application robots— things like smart cars, autonomous minisubmarines to explore the deep ocean, and self-guided vacuum cleaners or lawn mowers— are feasible and may well grow more common someday. But androids and robots like Commander Data and C3PO are going to remain fictional for a very long time. There are a couple of reasons for this.
First, the human mind is created not only by the neocortex but also by the emotional syst
ems of the old brain and by the complexity of the human body. To be human you need all of your biological machinery, not just a cortex. To converse like a human on all matters (to pass the Turing Test) would require an intelligent machine to have most of the experiences and emotions of a real human, and to live a humanlike life. Intelligent machines will have the equivalent of a cortex and a set of senses, but the rest is optional. It might be entertaining to watch an intelligent machine shuffle around in a humanlike body, but it will not have a mindthat is remotely humanlike unless we imbue it with humanlike emotional systems and humanlike experiences. That would be extremely difficult and, it seems to me, quite pointless. 碱血症
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