摘要
目前国内各家商业银行由于在对受信人授信时缺乏真正有效的信用评估手段，导致了两种情况的出现：一方面受信企业的信用缺失导致商业银行呆、坏帐居高不下，影响到商业银行的经营利润和竞争能力；另一方面，众多有发展前景的中小型企业、民营企业由于商业银行信用评估机制的不完善、贷款门槛的高企不下，导致其融资难度增加。本文正是基于上述状况，力求建立一套操作简单、有效实用的评估体系。
本文通过对目前源自西方的信用风险评估方法的回顾，以及对现有国内商业银行信用评价体系的分析，发现在实际运用中都存在各种局限性。相对而言国内商业银行采用的信用评分法在国内目前的经济体制下还较为可行。通过分析认为应该将信用风险评估中的定量分析和定性分析分为两个部分独立进行，本文仅对定量部分的评估进行研究，因此是基于财务信息的企业信用风险评估。
本文认为根据财务信息进行信用风险评估要保证评估结果的客观真实需要进行两个步骤：首先需要评估的就是财务信息本身的真实性，通过对“蓝田股份”的分析，证实了“共同规模分析法”可以用来简便快捷的判别数据真伪；接着进行信用风险评估，对七家上市公司分别采用传统的指标体系与以自行设计的以现金流量为主的指标体系进行评级，
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并将两个评级结果与专业的信用评估机构对这七家公司的信用评级结果对比，得出了以现金流量为主的指标体系的评估结果与专业信用评级结果更加一致的结论，而且证明了该指标体系增强了对未来风险的评估与衡量以及对风险的敏感度。
关键词：信用风险/信用风险评估/财务信息/现金流量
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ENTERPRISE’S CREDIT RISK ASSESSMENT METHODOLOGY AND DEMONSTRATING ANALYSIS BASED ON FINANCIAL INFORMATION
ABSTRACT
Nowadays, there is lack of effective credit risk assessment methodology when applicants are applying for credits, this leads to two situations in all kinds of commercial banks: On one hand, commercial banks’ bad debts keep on a high level because enterprises are lack of credit, influencing the business profits and competing ability of these banks. On the other hand, due to incomplete credit rating system of commercial banks and the rigorous criteria for loan applications, it is difficult f
or many small and medium-size enterprises and privately owned enterprises to get financing. And so we aim to establish a simple, effective and utility credit rating system by this thesis.
By reviewing present credit risk assessment methodology which is oriented from the West developed coumtry and analyzing the present credit rating system of commercial banks in our country, it is found that there are various limitations in practice. Comparatively, present credit rating system that is used in commercial banks is feasible under our country’s present克拉苏
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economic system. It is analyzed that we should separate the quantitative evaluation and qualitative evaluation. The research scope of the thesis is limited only to the quantitative evaluation, in another words, the credit risk evaluation system discussed in this thesis is based on financial information.
In this thesis, it is believed that there are two steps to ensure evaluation results’objectivity and authenticity according to the financial information. First, we need to evaluate authenticity of financial information. Through the analysis of “ Lan-tian Co.Ltd”, it is proved that the “Common Scale Analysis Method”can be used to evaluate the authenticity of the data efficiently；Secondly, what we need to do is credit risk evaluation. Seven public companies were evaluated by the traditional index system a
nd the own-designed index system, which focuses on the cash flow index, respectively. We compared the two results with the result from a professional credit reference agency, and found the results evaluating by the credit rating system emphasized on cash flow is more consistent with the results from the professional credit reference agency. Moreover, it is proved the credit rating system emphasized on cash flow enhance the effect and sensitivity of assessing the future risk.
KEY WORD: Credit risk/ credit risk assessment/ financial information/
cash flow
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d-木糖目录
中文摘要
英文摘要
第1章绪论 (1)
1.1写作背景 (1)
戴梓
1.2本文的主要研究目标和结构 (3)
1.3 本文的创新之处 (5)
第2章现有信用风险评估方法的评述 (7)
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2.1信用及信用风险 (7)
2.2信用风险评估的意义 (8)
香山商业文化博物馆2.3西方金融机构常用的信用风险评估方法 (8)
2.4我国商业银行信用管理中常用的信用风险评估方法 (11)
2.5现有信用风险评估方法在实际应用中的局限性 (11)张伟宏近况
第3章信用风险评估指标分析 (13)
3.1信用风险评估指标的有效性判断 (13)
3.2我国目前商业银行信用风险评估指标的局限性 (13)
第4章基于财务信息的企业信用风险评估 (23)
4.1企业财务基础信息判别 (23)
4.2案例分析 (25)
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