23届韩素音翻译竞赛英译汉原文

23届韩素音翻译竞赛英译汉原文

Are We There Yet?

America’s recovery will be much slower than that from most

recessions; but the government can help a bit.

“WHITHER goest thou, America?” That question, posed by

Jack Kerouac on behalf of the Beat generation half a century ago,

is the biggest uncertainty hanging over the world economy. And

it reflects the foremost worry for American voters, who go to the

polls for the congressional mid-term elections on November 2nd

with the country’s unemployment rate stubbornly stuck at

nearly one in ten. They should prepare themselves for a long,

hard ride.

The most wrenching recession since the 1930s ended a year

ago. But the recovery—none too powerful to begin with—slowed

sharply earlier this year. GDP grew by a feeble 1.6% at an annual

pace in the second quarter, and seems to have been stuck

somewhere similar since. The housing market slumped after

temporary tax incentives to buy a home expired. So few private

jobs were being created that unemployment looked more likely

to rise than fall. Fears grew over the summer that if this

deceleration continued, America’s economy would slip back

into recession.

Fortunately, those worries now seem exaggerated. Part of

the weakness of

second-quarter GDP was probably because of a temporary

surge in imports from China. The latest statistics, from reasonably

good retail sales in August to falling claims for unemployment

benefits, point to an economy that, though still weak, is not

slumping further. And history suggests that although nascent

recoveries often wobble for a quarter or two, they rarely relapse

into recession. For now, it is most likely that America’s economy

will crawl along with growth at perhaps 2.5%: above stall speed,

but far too slow to make much difference to the jobless rate.

Why, given that America usually rebounds from recession,

are the prospects so bleak? That’s because most past recessions

have been caused by tight monetary policy. When policy is

loosened, demand rebounds. This recession was the result of a

financial crisis. Recoveries after financial crises are normally weak

and slow as banking systems are repaired and balance-sheets

rebuilt. Typically, this period of debt reduction lasts around seven

years, which means America would emerge from it in 2014. By

some measures, households are reducing their debt burdens

unusually fast, but even optimistic seers do not think the process

is much more than half over.

Battling on the bus

America’s biggest problem is that its politicians have yet to

acknowledge that the economy is in for such a long, slow haul,

let alone prepare for the consequences. A few brave officials are

beginning to sound warnings that the jobless rate is likely to

“stay high”. But the political debate is more about assigning

blame for the recession than about suggesting imaginative ways

to give more oomph to the recovery.

Republicans argue that Barack Obama’s shift towards “big

government” explains the economy’s weakness, and that high

unemployment is proof that fiscal stimulus was a bad idea. In fact,

most of the growth in government to date has been temporary

and unavoidable; the longer-run growth in government is more

modest, and reflects the policies of both Mr Obama and his

predecessor. And the notion that high joblessness “proves”

that stimulus failed is simply wrong. The mechan ics of a financial

bust suggest that without a fiscal boost the recession would have

been much worse.

Democrats have their own class-warfare version of the blame

game, in which Wall Street’s excesses caused the problem and

higher taxes on high-earners are part of the solution. That is why

Mr. Obama’s legislative priority before the mid-terms is to

ensure that the Bush tax cuts expire at the end of this year for

households earning more than $250,000 but are extended for

everyone else.

This takes an unnecessary risk with the short-term recovery.

America’s experience in 1937 and Japan’s in 1997 are powerful

evidence that ill-timed tax rises can tip weak economies back into

recession. Higher taxes at the top, along with the waning of fiscal

stimulus and belt-tightening by the states, will make a weak

growth rate weaker still. Less noticed is that Mr. Obama’s fiscal

plan will also worsen the medium-term budget mess, by making

tax cuts for the middle class permanent.

Ways to overhaul the engine

In an ideal world America would commit itself now to the

medium-term tax reforms and spending cuts needed to get a

grip on the budget, while leav ing room to keep fiscal policy loose

for the moment. But in febrile, partisan Washington that is a

pipe-dream. Today’s goals can only be more modest: to nurture

the weak economy, minimize uncertainty and prepare the ground

for tomorrow’s fiscal debate. To that end, Congress ought to

extend all the Bush tax cuts until 2013. Then they should all

expire—prompting a serious fiscal overhaul, at a time when the

economy is stronger.

A broader set of policies could help to work off the hangover

faster. One priority is to encourage more write-downs of

mortgage debt. Almost a quarter of all Americans with

mortgages owe more than their houses are worth. Until that

changes the vicious cycle of rising foreclosures and falling prices

will continue. There are plenty of ideas on offer, from changing

the bankruptcy law so that judges can restructure mortgage debt

to empowering special trustees to write down loans. They all have

drawbacks, but a fetid pool of underwater mortgages will, much

like Japan’s loans to zombie firms, corrode the financial system

and harm the recovery.

Cleaning up the housing market would help cut America’s

unemployment rate, by making it easier for people to move to

where jobs are. But more must be done to stop high joblessness

becoming entrenched. Payroll-tax cuts and credits to reduce the

cost of hiring would help. (The health-care reform, alas, does the

opposite, at least for small businesses.)

Politicians will also have to think harder about training

schemes, because some workers lack the skills that new jobs

require.

Americans are used to great distances. The sooner they, and

their politicians, accept that the road to recovery will be a long

one, the faster they will get there.