frameworks for risk, vulnerability, and resilience

RiskAnalysis,Vol.31,No.4,2011DOI:10.1111/eRecentDefinitionsandAnalysisFrameworksforRisk,Vulnerability,andResilienceTerjeAven∗Recently,considerableattentionhasbeenpaidtoasystems-basedapproachtorisk,vulnera-bility,guedthatrisk,vulnerability,andresilienceareinherentlyaabilityisdefinedasthemanifestationoftheinherentstatesofthesystemthatcanbesubjectedtoanaturalhazardorbeexploitedtoadverselyaffectthatsystem,whereasresilienceisdefinedastheabilityofthesystemtowithstandamajordisruptionwithinacceptabledegradationparametersandtorecoverwithinanacceptabletime,andcompositecosts,,ontheotherhand,isprobabilitybased,defi,theconsequences).Inthisarticle,servedthatthekeyconceptsareinconsistentinthesensethattheuncertainty(probability)dimensionisincludedfortheriskdefirticle,gestedapproachiscomparedwithanalternativeframeworkthatprovidesalogicallydefinedstructureforrisk,vulnerabil-ity,andresilience,whereallthreeconceptsareincorporatingtheuncertainty(probability)DS:Resilience;risk;systems-basedapproach;uncertainties;UCTIONThetopicofthisarticleisthesystems-basedap-proachtorisk,vulnerability,andresilienceanalysis,presentedanddiscussedbyHaimes.(1,2)AccordingtoHaimes,therisktoasystem,aswellasitsvul-nerabilityandresilience,canbeunderstood,defined,andpossiblyquantifiedmosteffectivinfeaturesofthisapproachare:(1)i)Theperformancecapabilitiesofasystemareafunctionofitsstatevector;ii)Asystem’svulnerabilityandresiliencevectorsareeachafunctionoftheinput(threat),its∗AddresscorrespondencetoTerjeAven,UniversityofStavanger,UllandhaugStavanger4036,Norway;tel:4751831000/2267;fax:4751831750;@occurrence,and(thevectorof)abilityisdefinedasthemanifestationoftheinherentstatesofthesystemthatcanbesubjectedtoanaturalhaz-ardorbeexploitedtoadverselyaffectthatsys-tem,whereasresilienceisdefinedastheabilityofthesystemtowithstandamajordisruptionwithinacceptabledegradationparametersandtorecoverwithinanacceptabletimeandcom-positecostsandrisks;iii)Theconsequencesarefunctionsofthetimeoftheevent,thevectorofthestates,thevulner-ability,andtheresilienceofthesystem;iv)Thestatesofasystemaretimedependentandcommonlyfraughtwithvariabilityandknowl-edgeuncertainties;andv)Riskisameasureoftheprobabilityandsever-ityofadverseeffects,thatis,consequences.(3)515C2010SocietyforRiskAnalysis0272-4332/11/0100-0515$22.00/1