China’s monetarypolicy and fiscal policy中国的货币政策和财政政策

中国的货币政策和财政政策

在过去的几年里,中国政府一直在追求一个积极财政政策，想通过发行政府债券来重点建设项目融资。与此同时,健全的货币政策与财政政策已经实施配合。协调了两个政策,通货紧缩的趋势已得到遏制,同时还加速经济结构调整和经济增长的进一步提升。

中国的GDP在2002年超过10万亿元,这是一个历史性的突破。近年来,财政收入体制的改革促进了政府收入的稳定增长。在2001年,它达到1.6万亿元,是1990年的5.6倍。政府收入的比例从1994年GDP的11%在增长,在早期阶段的改革——到2001年的17%。政府支出的改革管理也一直取得了重大进展。

尽管有了上述成就,但保持中国经济发展仍面临着挑战。主要反映在经济放缓的政府收入自2002年年初以来,不良贷款的比例相对较高的金融部门,在农村地区需求疲软和持久的就业压力。此外,全球经济前景的不确定性已经影响了中国的出口和经济增长。要解决这些问题,中国政府将通过积极的财政政策和稳健的货币政策继续刺激国内需求,进一步加快经济结构调整和提高经济增长质量和效益。最近的财政和货币政策主要发展如下。

一、货币政策

自2002年年初以来,中国人民银行(PBC)已经采取合理的货币政策,同时促进政策效率，间接政策工具和机制已得到改进。在2002年9月的一年中,中国的广义货币供应量(M2)和狭义货币供应量(M1)分别增加了16.5%和15.9%。中国的基础货币稳步增长和金融机构的位置保持了。在2002年9月底,中央银行的基础货币在3.97万亿元,占每年增长11.1%,加速至3.4倍,较前一年。平均超额准备金率是4.9%的金融机构,代表一个适当的位置和高流动性。贷款发放的中国金融机构也迅速发展,改善贷款结构和质量。在一个比较的基础上,人民币贷款的所有金融机构(包括外国机构)增加了14.2%,加速了2.6是2001年底和2001年3月以来的最高增长。针对国内外现状,中国人民银行将:

1、使用灵活的货币政策来调整货币供应增长和维护合理的适当信贷总量；

2、促进改革的利率机制,把利率在供需基金,以及在优化资源配置发挥作用；

3、提高激励申请贷款和公司治理的商业银行；

4、在完善人民币汇率形成系统的前提下保持人民币汇率稳定。

二、财政政策

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在2002年初根据全球经济复苏势头的疲软，中国政府继续沿用一个积极的财政政策，来刺激国内需求。在前三个季度，财政收入和支出增加了10.9%、17.6%，根据预算限制，由于收入和增加支出放缓,已经没有多少空间可以用来进一步削减财政赤字。收入增长放缓是由于以下因素:

1、海关关税从15.3%降低到12%符合中国加入WTO承诺；

2、影响降低证券印花税税率在2002年变得越来越明显；

3、在银行业和保险业营业税是进一步降低到2002年的1%。

支出的增加是由于以下因素：

1、在项目资助的持续投资政府债券，西部地区发展和技术创新；

2、更多资源定向到社会安全网；

3、公务员要求增加工资；

4、对农业、科学和教育的投资增加。

因此，预算赤字在2002年将保持在GDP的3.3%的水平。同时密切关注所带来的风险，增加的财政赤字和公共债务，中国政府也意识到在银行业、国有企业的重组的隐型财政债务引起的不良贷款，各国将努力使解决中期财政风险，通过实现一个中期预算框架和促进各种改革，包括彻底改革金融体系，国有企业和社会安全网。我们坚定地相信，中国的中期财政可持续性将是持续的经济增长和稳定增长的收入以及人民对政府的信心保障。

三、协调货币政策和财政政策

货币和财政政策必须妥善协调。这是特别对债券市场相关的，尤其是政府债券市场，因为这已成为中央银行调整货币供应最重要的渠道之一。目前,与基础货币占3万亿元人民币，政府债务仅为2万亿元人民币的债券,体积是不足以满足作战需求的中央银行的货币政策。未偿还的债务，包括长、中期债务和几乎没有短期的,也会影响中央银行的货币政策操作的效率。此外，产品在债券市场缺乏多样性。在这种情况下，很难在对中央银行进行公开市场操作时充分考虑到各方的利益。因此，中央银行和财政部协调和沟通是必要的策略。

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China’s monetary and fiscal policy

In the past few years, the Chinese government has been pursuing an active fiscal

policy to finance key construction projects by issuing government debt. Meanwhile,

sound monetary policy has been implemented in coordination with the fiscal policy.

With the coordination of the two policies, the trend of deflation has been contained,

economic restructuring accelerated and economic growth further promoted.

China’s GDP exceeded RMB 10 trillion in 2002 - a historic breakthrough. In

recent years, reform of the fiscal revenue system has resulted in the steady growth of

government revenue. In 2001, it amounted to RMB 1.6 trillion, 5.6 times that in 1990.

The proportion of government revenue to GDP increased from 11% in 1994 - during

the early stage of reform - to 17% in 2001. Significant progress has also been made in

reforming the management of government expenditure.

Despite the above achievements, there remain challenges facing China’s

economic development, which are mainly reflected in the slowdown of government

revenue since the beginning of 2002, the relatively high proportion of non-performing

loans in the financial sector, weaker demand in rural areas and persistent employment

pressure. In addition, uncertainties over the global economic outlook have had an

impact on China’s exports and economic growth. To resolve these problems, the

Chinese government will continue to boost domestic demand through proactive fiscal

policy and sound monetary policy and further speed up economic restructuring and

improve the quality and efficiency of economic growth. Major developments in recent

fiscal and monetary policies are as follows.

Monetary policy

Since the beginning of 2002, the People’s Bank of China (PBC) has been

pursuing sound monetary policy while promoting policy efficiency. The indirect

policy instruments and mechanism have been improved. During the year to September

2002, China’s broad money (M2) and narrow money (M1) increased by 16.5% and

15.9% respectively. China’s base money has increased steadily and financial

institutions’ positions remain adequate. At the end of September 2002, the central

bank’s base money stood at RMB 3.97 trillion, representing an annual growth rate of

11.1%, an acceleration of 3.4 percentage points from a year earlier. The average

excess reserve ratio of the financial institutions was 4.9%, representing an adequate

position and high liquidity. The loans granted by China’s financial institutions have

also grown rapidly, with improvements in lending structure and quality. On a

comparable basis, renminbi loans by all financial institutions (including foreign

institutions) increased by 14.2%, accelerating by 2.6 percentage points from end-2001

and registering the highest growth since March 2001. In the light of the current

situation at home and abroad, the PBC will:

• use monetary policy instruments in a flexible manner to adjust money supply

appropriately and maintain reasonable growth in credit aggregates;

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• promote the reform of the interest rate mechanism, and bring interest rates into

full play in adjustment of the demand and supply of funds, as well as in the

optimisation of resource allocation;

• improve the incentives applying to lending and corporate governance of

commercial banks;

• and improve the RMB exchange rate formation system under the precondition

of preserving the stability of the RMB exchange rate.

Fiscal policy

In the light of the weak global recovery in early 2002, the Chinese government

continued to pursue a proactive fiscal policy to boost domestic demand. In the first

three quarters, fiscal revenue increased by 10.9% and expenditure by 17.6%, which is

under the budget limits. Owing to the slowing revenue and increasing expenditure,

there is little room for further fiscal deficit reduction.

The slowing revenue is caused by the following factors:

• customs tariffs were reduced from 15.3% to 12% in line with China’s WTO

commitment;

• the impact of lowering the securities stamp tax rate became increasingly

evident in 2002;

• the banking and insurance business tax was further lowered by 1 percentage

point in 2002.

The increase in expenditures is caused by the following factors:

• continued investment in projects funded by government bonds, western region

development and technical innovation;

• more resources directed to the social safety net;

• wage increases for civil servants;

• increased investment in agriculture, science and education.

Therefore, the budget deficit in 2002 will remain at the level of 3.3% of GDP.

While paying close attention to the explicit risks posed by the increase in the fiscal deficit

and public debt, the Chinese government is also aware of the implicit fiscal liabilities arising from

non-performing loans in the banking sector, the restructuring of state-owned enterprises, and the

underfunded pension system. Efforts will be made to address the medium-term fiscal risks by

implementing a medium-term budgetary framework and promoting various reforms, including the

overhaul of the financial system, the state-owned enterprises and the social safety net. We firmly

believe that China’s medium-term fiscal sustainability is strongly underpinned by sustained

economic growth and a steady increase in revenue as well as the people’s confidence in the

government.

Coordination between monetary policy and fiscal policy

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Monetary and fiscal policy must be well coordinated. This is particularly relevant

to the bond market, especially the government bond market, since it has become one

of the most important channels for the central bank to adjust the money supply.

Currently, with base money standing at RMB 3 trillion, and outstanding government

debts at only RMB 2 trillion, the volume of bonds is insufficient to satisfy the

operational needs of the central bank’s monetary policy. Outstanding debts, consisting

of long-and medium-term debts and almost no short-term ones, will also affect the

efficiency of the central bank’s monetary operations. Furthermore, the products in the

bond market lack diversity. Under these circumstances, it will be hard for the central

bank when conducting open market operations to take into consideration the interests

of all the parties involved. Therefore, coordination and communication between the

central bank and the Ministry of Finance are necessary in formulating and

implementingmacroeconomic policies.

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